Greetings friends and readers!
I’ve been bashing around different ideas for what to discuss this month, but I’ve kept returning to the idea of “so what”. How may times do we need to see news headlines of the impending El Nino cycle, heatwaves in Spain and much of Southeast Asia, or a Big Melt in California, before we really step up and do our part to deliver solutions at scale. The answer of course is yesterday, then now, then now. I’m a strong believer in that climate change impacts are one of three systemic gamechangers now and into the next decade, alongside geopolitical risk and the ripple effects of democratised, general artificial intelligence. Our efforts to usher in a sustained prosperity probably hinges on working together to manage all three well enough for net benefit, within our planetary boundaries.
It can feel overwhelming at times - never in modern history have we been hit with so much, so quickly, so intensely.
We can retreat and hope enough of it passes over us, but each of these risks are likely to leave few stones unturned. And most of us are responsible for not only ourselves but something bigger - whether that is our loved ones, neighbours, colleagues, or natural environment. So what should be part and parcel of leadership now and going forward?
Security leadership and the climate crisis
First, here’s what ChatGPT had to say about this:
Damn, that ain’t half bad. But I got a few more.
They’re not quite out of a Harvard Business Review article but from my lived experience - the good, bad and the ugly - as well as those across various professions I’ve spoken with, trust and admire. Like with everything else in this newsletter, these are my views so if you see it differently, I’d like to hear your perspective.
Core values: We are all leaders, not just those with certain titles. It’s absolutely critical from the jump that we know we are and what we stand for in the face of new challenges. There are countless lists of essential leadership values and principles, but many of them probably overlap with your personal ones so why not start there. Consider how they may serve you in the face of change and surprise. For instance, is my desire for security an asset or a liability? How may empathy be a superpower as I seek to influence and achieve the outcomes needed for my staff in a crisis or in pitching a transformational project to skeptical local residents?
Personal resilience: The American Psychological Association defines individual resilience as “the process and outcome of successfully adapting to difficult or challenging life experiences, especially through mental, emotional, and behavioral flexibility and adjustment to external and internal demands.” For me this is the foundation from which all else is built upon - our outlook on risk and opportunity, our boundaries, ability to connect, ability to cope with stress and adapt. Are we willing to challenge our own existing ways of thinking and doing things? Can we learn and adopt new perspectives and knowledge, and overcome our initial discomfort? Are your answers here aligned to your core values or are there areas which you can work on? Embed and apply these key principles within your team. If you’re a founder / C[x]O / business leader, your organisation should seek to embrace resilient, risk-driven behaviours to protect your organisation’s key assets and enhance your competitive edge versus those who may not have these qualities.
Hire and develop those around you with these attributes. Security and crisis managers, and anyone who has spent time on the ground in remote places knows the value of building and sustaining trust so that you have each others’ backs. I’m of the view that core values and whether / how a person is resilient informs the often-asked “are you mission-driven” question: what do they care about and why. Will they go the extra mile or apply the attentiveness to achieve an outcome?
If I will take care of me for you, then you will take care of you for me. - Jim Rohn
Source: World Economic Forum
Empathy and listening: If you think you have all the answers, then you don’t (a few of those who know me well, enjoy reminding of this!). This requires a degree of humility too, and should not clash (it’s an asset really) with your ability to perform your role. Being able to put ourselves in the position of our colleagues, stakeholders, clients etc is now a popularly touted leadership attribute. Human centered design seeks to embed that mindset into a structured, scalable approach. Demonstrating to others you are listening also shows they’re being heard. And show that these actions are reflected in your choices - whether or not you have chosen to incorporate or accept what you’ve received. When we consider how so much of work around the energy transition and climate risk mitigation involves justice and equity for those impacted (over $60 billion of the IRA is set aside for projects targeting socioeconomically disadvantaged and marginalised groups to help meet the goals of the Biden administration’s Justice40 initiatives), showing empathy and humility - whether you’re a project director, site security manager, climate intel analyst or community relations lead. Showing vulnerability is an asset for you, not a weakness.
Communication - closely related to to the previous attribute, know your Purpose, Audience and Context for anything you intend to express. When dealing with life safety issues, or advocating for solutions that will mitigate those risks, this can make all the difference. Get people to get to safety. Say what happened, why, what you’re doing, and explain it again. Investing in these skills is needed to improve the wellbeing and survivability of our workers. Climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe is my favourite advocate for effective climate communications in a way that actually connects. Effective writers and speakers (on email, Powerpoint, Zoom and in person) are gold dust - train and develop for these skills.
Empowerment with accountability - provide the autonomy for your people to come up with and deliver improvements, new ideas, efficiencies and fixes. I’m a big proponent of developing talent from within, as opposed to simply hiring or buying the solution. We all were given or earned an opportunity to step up in our careers, perhaps multiple times. This helps them to not just invest in you but also the team’s mission and outcomes. Encourage them to think and deliver creatively - how do I solve today’s issues in a way that will stand the test of time? It may not be about building a wall 2m higher, but rethinking setback distances, enhanced early warning and staff / community training. Hold them accountable though for what they’ll say they do. You care, and so should they and those impacted by decisions and choices.
Have a clear mission, move quickly and execute - this is a major asset for many of us in the security world. We know why we’re doing what we’re doing, and are biased to action. Perhaps sometimes to a fault! But when facing multiple boiling frog situations - heightened geopolitical tensions in area x, signals of impending drought in region y, major policy changes in country z that impact your firm - we are adept and agile in anticipating their potential risk and impact, bringing together the right stakeholders and getting it done. As we move to a world that starts to feel like a “polycrisis” - our agility will be called into more often. You may break things but try to avoid doing it intentionally.
Build to last - are my team’s capabilities sustainable and adaptive to changing needs, priorities, geographies and asks? Do choices reflect a proactive, or reactive approach and set of capabilities?
Team design - many teams are designed to handle one major crisis or project at a time. For many organisations, small teams are the norm for a multitude of reasons. But can it respond to multiple simultaneous or successive crises? Will they burn out? Are your people resilient and you / your organisation appreciative of resources to enable them to individually recover? The question here is not just about hiring the right people or how many. Diversity of knowledge and experience, location, work style (remote, in-office, hybrid), ability to triage, and readiness of third-party vendors and adjacent functions to support. Perhaps most importantly, hire people who are different from you, smarter than you, add (not just fit) to your culture, and hold different worldviews. Right now I sense that corporate risk / security / strategy teams need add or develop folks with a mix of generalist abilities combined with environmental science backgrounds to better inform the above. Diverse talent within teams outperform their peers, and diverse organisations tend to have higher earnings and make better decisions.
Making your team sustainable. Align your policies and solutions with climate impact mitigation in mind: make a mini-version of a net zero or sustainability plan for your team. Find out your emissions footprint - for security teams, this is often travel and electricity consumption coming from your devices and cloud server usage. Seek opportunities to reduce waste - biodegradable products etc. Can you replace generators with solar-powered batteries - as UPSs or remote sites? Is your fleet at least plugin/hybrid if not fully EV? The possibilities are almost boundless here depending on team size, locations, sector, specific remit. And it could be a fantastic way to transform your team’s profile and business value to your organisation, as well as presenting an invaluable opportunity for your direct reports to take on more responsibility and visibility. If you’d like to geek out on writing a climate plan, look here as a start (h/t to the Terra.do LFA course for fishing out some of these resources!):
A summary of how to write a climate plan that doesn’t suck (Protocol)
A deeper dive into the elements of a climate plan (Manifest Climate)
Some case studies from Europe on how cities are implementing measures to help adapt to more extreme (hotter and flood-ier) weather (EU ClimateADAPT). I particularly love the flood defence examples showcased in the Low Countries.
Trusted and agile operators - for those who are the “first point of contact” or “on the ground,” do they understand the risk environment, how it evolves, and what to look out for? Not only should they have a resilient mindset, but also that of problem solvers - for the simple reason that organisations value tend to value people who work solutions focused people. Regardless of the sector, company stage, size of organisation, or risks faced, they need to be mission-driven and mission-aligned with you as a leader.
Actionable data and insights - knowing what information you need to answer your key business questions is critical or else you and your operators would be flying blind. Therefore you and your team need to prioritise understanding your organisation / business / project / client / operating environment, map your stakeholders, build data collection requirements, and ensure you have consistent, high quality data which empower you to do your work. This is not a one-off process but a continuous one - your business, remit and risks change. So should your sources - the type and location of remote sensors, who you meet or interview regularly, technology and software, news and data subscriptions, and so forth. Be prepared to evolve this - if you feel like you’re getting pulled in to respond to new, multiple crises e.g. a drought in Spain followed by power outages in France, it’s worth considering if you need to start integrating weather and electricity usage data into your analysis. Connecting with your organisation’s data analytics and insights team, or building your own capability - with storytelling in mind - will become increasingly essential.
Clear, simple frameworks and processes - if “how” you do what you do is not easy to explain, consider it an opportunity to simplify because a) not only may your team or stakeholders not understand its value but b) that may limit your ability to make or influence key decisions especially in c) a rapidly evolving situation or crisis. Simplicity also means simpler to fix, adapt, update or completely redo.
Automate, but know how to go manual - Reducing the number of manual tasks lowers failure demand, (most likely) improves outcomes for your team and stakeholders, while freeing up your people to focus on key projects, horizon scan, and deliver. If your team can automate the remote collection of crop output and temperature data, fantastic. ChatGPT/AutoGPT it if you can (and are allowed to). Perhaps that opens them up to consider how to communicate findings to local managers and government officials to support new security features on your estate. But can you also keep going well enough through a sustained drought, flooding etc? And are your people trained to go back to pencils and paper to achieve life safety objectives and support critical operational and comms / reputational actions.
Treat your people well - the business cycle fluctuates, but people remember managers who treat them well and those who don’t. So listen and look after them.
Visibility and accountability: If you ask your team to stand up and be counted, they should expect that of you. This quality is especially important when introducing a new solution, a project at a new location, and with new (often skeptical) stakeholders whose partnership are essential to success or failure. In a crisis or major incident, this is a choice that could be decisive in avoiding protests, keeping government partners onside, managing senior leadership expectations, etc. You just may be asked to do it more often!
Have I missed something? Do you agree or disagree? What do you feel is essential to be a leader to help us survive and thrive amid our climate crisis?
Reflections from the Garden City 🇸🇬
It was fantastic to reconnect with old friends and meet new ones at the Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) Pan-Asia Regional Council conference in Singapore last week. I’m proud to be part of the team that brought the event to life, with over 150 participants from Singapore, Asia, the US and beyond. What was fantastic to witness was the level of engagement and forward-focused thinking on the region’s geopolitical future and the rosy outlook for ASEAN economic dynamism. Moreover, I’m proud that we were able to have the wonderful Lorraine Schneider and Jayashri Lokarajan run a climate crisis resiliency workshop to top off the conference. They put security leaders and analysts through the paces by simulating a heatwave which cascades into people and political issues. The feedback from the group was amazing and for me showed a) more frequent extreme weather events mean climate security is starting to resonate more deeply in the security profession and b) they are starting to think more critically about their role, capabilities and opportunities with climate.
You love to see it.
What caught my eye
The bird portal is starting to feel a bit wobbly. Credible voices are moving away or being crowded out. Going forward, I’ll be sharing cool stuff I come across - or that you’ve suggested! - on Substack Notes. Download the app and follow me there. I’ll still be on LinkedIn, though.
But this though definitely caught my eye. If you don’t have the 48 minutes, watch the final 3:30. How do you think the coming arrival of artificial general intelligence mean for keeping our people safe and our ability to survive the climate crisis? How may it enable us or create new risks - and what to do. Or should we get with Elon and fly to the Moon to start all over. For now, maybe ChatGPT can write my next newsletter.
Next month I’ll talk more about my experience with the Terra.do Learning for Action course, and the intersection of the discourse on this newsletter with climate justice.
See you next time!
Well, you are wildly optimistic. The problem I have with this is that it's still so "Old Paradigm". You really don't seem to know what's going on with the Climate System and what the New Paradigm looks like.
Things are much worse than you think.
We are about to have a massive Climate Shock on par with 1880 and the 1930's. I am forecasting 800 million to 1.5 billion deaths over the next five years.
Putin and Xi have understood that it was coming since 2015 because they followed the developing science and understood its implications.
Specifically the diminishing albedo and the doubling of the rate of warming from 0.18C per decade to 0.36C per decade.
That's why, after their meeting in Siberia in 2021 to sign a "moonbase" treaty, Xi went on a spending spree and now is sitting on enough grain to feed China for 18 months. 50% of global grain reserves in fact.
Putin went and got ready to invade Ukraine. An invasion he delayed until after the Winter Olympics, at Xi's request.
We are already at war globally and the US is losing badly at this point. Look at the diplomacy going on to understand how US "client states" are being flipped.
The key fact is that we got the Climate Science wrong. We relied way to heavily on Climate Science that the Fossil Fuel Industry pushed into Academia. They backed the Climate Moderate Faction, which envisioned a gradually warming planet.
The "ground truth" is saying they were wrong. Warming is both more rapid than they forecast and much worse.
Let me end by asking you a question.
If I told you that for the last 2.1 million years CO2 levels never went above 280ppm and never below 180ppm. That this 100ppm fluctuation caused the Earth to warm and cool over a 6C range. Resulting in NYC being under 1 mile of glacial ice (180ppm) or the NYC of 1850 (280ppm).
So that 100ppm caused 6C of warming.
Now, how much warming do you think 140ppm is going to bring?
Do you really think the 1.2C we are "observing" is all the warming?
Who told you that, and what were they selling you.
Here's a clue. The paleoclimate record says we are at 4C of warming right now. If we get to 560ppm it will be 6C.
The only real question is how fast we get there. At 0.36C per decade, it won't take long.
You need better information.